2025/2026 ICB: Dryland crops in Western and Northern Free State
2025/2026 SUMMER CROPS  //  Income and Cost Budgets

Northern Free State – dryland

Income and cost budgets for maize, soybeans, sunflower, groundnuts and grain sorghum for Western and Northern Free State
Area Western and Northern Free State
Crop Maize (higher potential) Maize (normal potential) Soybeans Sunflower Groundnuts Grain sorghum
Production system Dryland

1. Income
Yield: deterministic Ton/ha 5.50 4.50 1.75 1.75 1.50 3.00
SAFEX simulated price / producer price: 2026 R/ton 3 326 3 216 7 085 8 775 15 451 2 955
Total deductions R/ton 464 392 315 399 66 66
– Transport differential R/ton 379 298 179 302 – –
– Grade differential R/ton 20 28 – – – –
– Handling and commission R/ton 66 66 66 97 66 66
– Seed breeding & technology levy R/ton – – 70 – – –
Price premiums R/ton – – – – – –
Net farm gate price R/ton 2 862 2 824 6 770 8 376 15 385 2 889
Gross income R/ha R15 742 R12 708 R11 848 R14 658 R23 078 R8 668

2. Variable expenditures
Contracting R/ha – – – – – –
Crop insurance R/ha 173 140 581 411 361 277
Fertilizer R/ha 3 854 3 051 1 164 1 866 1 738 2 861
Lime R/ha 281 281 – – 154 164
Seed R/ha 2 139 1 657 1 425 744 2 404 492
Fuel R/ha 1 470 1 457 1 040 1 135 2 000 1 352
Herbicide R/ha 1 373 1 293 1 289 1 207 1 353 1 199
Insecticide / Fungicide R/ha 704 704 571 432 1 174 1 085
Marketing costs R/ha – – – – – –
Repairs and maintenance R/ha 1 109 962 930 833 1 044 810
Casual labour R/ha 354 290 – – 564 75
Aerial spray R/ha – – – – – –
Other expenditure R/ha – – – – 352 –
Total variable expenditure R/ha R11 457 R9 834 R7 000 R6 629 R11 144 R8 315
Total variable expenditure R/ton R2 083 R2 185 R4 000 R3 788 R7 429 R2 772
3.1 Gross margin R/ha R4 285 R2 874 R4 849 R8 029 R11 933 R353
3.2 Gross margin R/ton R779 R639 R2 771 R4 588 R7 956 R118
Break-even yield T/ha 4.00 3.48 1.03 0.79 0.72 2.88
Break-even price R/ton R2 083 R2 185 R4 000 R3 788 R7 429 R2 772
Source: BFAP, GSA and Senwes – 2025.
Gross margin comparison – baseline: Northern Free State
Gross margin comparison - Baseline: Western / Northern Free State

Gross margin per hectare: Northern Free State

Maize sensitivity analysis (higher potential soils)
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00
R2 462 -1 608 -377 854 2 085 3 316 4 547 5 778
R2 562 -1 208 73 1 354 2 635 3 916 5 197 6 478
R2 662 -808 523 1 854 3 185 4 516 5 847 7 178
R2 762 -408 973 2 354 3 735 5 116 6 497 7 878
R2 862 -8 1 423 2 854 4 285 5 716 7 147 8 578
R2 962 392 1 873 3 354 4 835 6 316 7 797 9 278
R3 062 792 2 323 3 954 5 385 6 916 8 447 9 978
R3 162 1 192 2 773 4 354 5 935 7 516 9 097 10 678
R3 262 1 592 3 223 4 854 6 485 8 116 9 747 11 378
Soybeans sensitivity analysis (normal potential soils)
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50
R6 370 -629 964 2 556 4 149 5 741 7 334 8 927
R6 470 -529 1 089 2 706 4 324 5 941 7 559 9 177
R6 570 -429 1 214 2 856 4 499 6 141 7 784 9 427
R6 670 -329 1 339 3 006 4 674 6 341 8 009 9 677
R6 770 -229 1 464 3 156 4 849 6 541 8 234 9 927
R6 870 -129 1 589 3 306 5 024 6 741 8 459 10 177
R6 970 -29 1 714 3 456 5 199 6 941 8 684 10 427
R7 070 71 1 839 3 606 5 374 7 141 8 909 10 677
R7 170 171 1 964 3 756 5 549 7 341 9 134 10 927
Sunflower sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50
R7 976 1 347 3 341 5 335 7 329 9 323 11 317 13 311
R8 076 1 447 3 466 5 485 7 504 9 523 11 542 13 561
R8 176 1 547 3 591 5 635 7 679 9 723 11 767 13 811
R8 276 1 647 3 716 5 785 7 854 9 923 11 992 14 061
R8 376 1 747 3 841 5 935 8 029 10 123 12 217 14 311
R8 476 1 847 3 966 6 085 8 204 10 323 12 442 14 561
R8 576 1 947 4 091 6 235 8 379 10 523 12 667 14 811
R8 676 2 047 4 216 6 385 8 554 10 723 12 892 15 061
R8 776 2 147 4 341 6 535 8 729 10 923 13 117 15 311
Groundnuts sensitivity analysis
Yield (t/ha)
Producers price 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25
R14 985 770 4 741 8 712 12 683 16 655 20 626 24 597
R15 085 845 4 841 8 837 12 833 16 830 20 826 24 822
R15 185 920 4 941 8 962 12 983 17 005 21 026 25 047
R15 285 995 5 041 9 087 13 133 17 180 21 226 25 272
R15 385 1 070 5 141 9 212 13 283 17 355 21 426 25 497
R15 485 1 145 5 241 9 337 13 433 17 530 21 626 25 722
R15 585 1 220 5 341 9 462 13 583 17 705 21 826 25 947
R15 685 1 295 5 441 9 587 13 733 17 880 22 026 26 172
R15 785 1 370 5 541 9 712 13 883 18 055 22 226 26 397
Soybeans margin above/below maize
Yield Price (R/ton)
R6 470 R6 570 R6 670 R6 770 R6 870 R6 970 R7 070
0.75 -6 432 -6 357 -6 282 -6 207 -6 132 -6 057 -5 982
1.00 -4 814 -4 714 -4 614 -4 514 -4 414 -4 314 -4 214
1.25 -3 197 -3 072 -2 947 -2 822 -2 697 -2 572 -2 447
1.50 -1 579 -1 429 -1 279 -1 129 -979 -829 -679
1.75 39 214 389 564 739 914 1 089
2.00 1 656 1 856 2 056 2 256 2 456 2 656 2 856
2.25 3 274 3 499 3 724 3 949 4 174 4 399 4 624
2.50 4 891 5 141 5 391 5 641 5 891 6 141 6 391
2.75 6 509 6 784 7 059 7 334 7 609 7 884 8 159

Notes

  • The Northern Free State high potential maize budget represents the cultivation of yellow maize under high potential conditions such as water table soils.
  • Farm gate price for ground nuts is calculated according to assumptions based on the share of the crop that is graded according to selection grade (40/50-60/70 and 70/80), diverse and crush (human and oil).
  • The cost items reflect the input allocation based on the target yield for the respective crops.
  • Although some expenditure items are zero, it is reflected in the budgets to allow for individual inclusion.
  • Other macro- and microelements such as calcium, magnesium and zinc are included in the fertiliser costs.
  • The cost of fuel includes pre-harvest and harvesting costs with the assumption that own machinery is used.
  • The cost for soybean seed reflects a combination of own and purchased seed.
  • There will be large fluctuations for insurance cost (hail) based on the associated risk in respective areas. It is advised that producers adjust this cost based on their individual premiums.
  • It is important to note that overhead costs are not included and should be accounted for.
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